Aston Villa Defy Gravity Once More as Victorious Run Continues at Chelsea
It simply cannot go on. The logic defies rational sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.
A Historic Triumph Defying Expectations
The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's top-flight clash at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, this feat seemed improbable, as the hosts controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and might have added several more. But, Chelsea have shown vulnerability when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable habit of securing away victories after falling behind.
First, the striker leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post after his first effort was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the decisive goal with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might feel some fortune was due, and there's no question the equalizing goal had a large slice of good fortune. Currently, however, Lady Luck is favoring Villa.
The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Streak
The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those games. Their underlying metrics have been superior in just six of those fixtures, and in a couple of those, the advantage was minimal. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula seems unsustainable, but pundits have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their outcomes will finally match their performances or if their performances can improve to justify the results.
This should not be possible, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa continue winning.
A Core Trait: Resilience
Coming from behind is not just a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those have been secured this term, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed 9 goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.
- Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no game ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it once more.
- Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at changing games through his use of the bench.
A Masterful Change
While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs in behind created issues. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, bolstering the center and adding the width they had eschewed earlier.
Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's zero before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could have won more comfortably. Not for the first time, opposing manager Enzo Maresca seemed unable to react as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is more proficient at implementing a tactical plan with preparation time than adapting in the moment.
Individual Brilliance
Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of individuals producing pieces of match-winning quality to turn games. Morgan Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish into the top corner has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was the winger who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's seldom the whole side playing flawlessly, but sufficient players within it delivering to earn the victories.
What Comes Next?
Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season approaches its midway point, they must be viewed as in the championship conversation, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a major examination of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only had better the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.
Arsenal have since put together their own sequence of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both sides – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their championship pedigree.